A Daily Chart with Data and my Comments will be Posted here by 8:30 AM Eastern Time or Noon on Weekend the following morning, baring technical problems or prior notice. My Data Source is Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Chart and Data Below (Click on Image for bigger chart)
Special Note; I believe mail addressed to me at T Theory foundation from this site has had a problem since Jan 31 but works fine if you go to T Theory Observations and use that email link Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations. My web master is on vacation for two weeks so the problem needs this work around. Just re-send questions or comments using the link at Observations. Terry
Friday Morning 8:00 AM February 5 2010 Comment for Feb 4 Close: T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13 but the S&P broke down below the mid-channel support noted in the chart and this is negative. Also an Arms Sell Warning should insure the S&P will fall to the lower green envelope currently around S&P 1046 over the next week or two. See the Feb 2 Post below for Arms discussion.
Now that we have seen the resumption of the decline I think it is safe to conclude the downside objective for the current wave is just below the lower S&P envelope. The fact that the upside did not reach the upper envelope probably means the S&P will have to drop below the lower normal bottom objective 1046 so that the total swing is roughly the vertical width of the channel, but shifted down due to "problems".
In the days ahead we need to see a new cash build phase under the green line that can become the left side of a new small T. There is no way to project the next low via T Theory but there is evidence it could be messy and it is possible the AD Line will go back towards the early November low. The next step is too see if the Volume oscillator will drop on further weakness below the bottom pattern of a week ago. If so the market is accelerating into a selling climax.
Now that I archive these daily posts I will start answering technical questions here and adding in a few mini-tutorials. For the next few weeks these topics fall into the category of controlling market risk with T Theory concepts. Alternate Ts will be discussed on the Saturday post when I have more time before the noon post.
Terry
See Recent Posts at bottom of page. Check my Sunday TTO Update Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for this coming Sunday afternoon for bigger picture details and further comments.
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